Is Egypt a Tipping Point or a Now What?

When history decides to shift, people are always looking in the wrong direction. That’s what makes so-called tipping points so unsettling — the experts miss them so often. In the case of Egypt, nobody expected peaceful popular uprisings to topple Mubarak. The Arab world was focused on the dangers of Iran or the Muslim Brotherhood, al-Qaeda or Israel. It was taken for granted that the repressive regimes of the Arab world were here to stay, backed by the military, secret police, and powerful friends on the side like the United States. (more…)

The Winter of Their Discontent: What Will the Arabs Do?

Is the Arab world headed for chaos or democracy? The U.S. has been wrong so many times, it’s hard to know who to trust in these matters. But some trends are clear, at least. Usually societies that enjoy economic growth also show increased happiness. In the U.S. we’ve seen that equation hold true, especially in reverse. Economic woes reflect personal discontent. But by this measure, the uprising in Egypt is something of a paradox. In Egypt the GDP has been rising in recent years, yet the population has become discontented, and the rate of their discontent has been sharp.  Only the top 20% of Egyptians think that their lives are increasing in well-being. (more…)